- 48 percent of bettors expect Spain to win the final, whilst 40 percent believe Argentina will claim the title once again.
- Bookmakers are also convinced: Spain are the favourites to win the World Cup title, at 60 percent.
- The Argentines are only ahead in case of a penalty shoot-out.
The 2026 World Cup final line-up is set: Spain will face Argentina in the final. The Spaniards reached the final with a convincing 2–0 victory over title favourites France and now have the chance to win their first World Cup title since 2010. Meanwhile, Argentina secured their place in the final with a strong comeback against England and still have strong hopes of winning their second consecutive title.
High probability: Spain manages to win within regular time
For bettors, there is a favourite ahead of kick-off: 48 percent expect a Spanish victory within regular time, whilst 40 percent believe the Albiceleste can secure another World Cup triumph. The remaining bettors expect the match to be decided in over- time or beyond.
Also according to analysis by the Tipico Sports Data Centre, Spain are the favourites going into the 2026 World Cup final. The Spaniards have a 41 percent chance of winning after normal time, whilst Argentina – as was the case in the semi-final against England – start the match as underdogs with a 28 percent chance.
A penalty shoot-out would be surprising
The probability of a draw after 90 minutes stands at 31 percent. When it comes to winning the World Cup title, regardless of the duration of the match, Spain’s chances are put at 60.5 percent – an increase of 42.3 percentage points compared with the start of the tournament. Argentina and the team led by global superstar Lionel Messi have a 45.5 percent chance of winning the title, which represents an increase of 35.5 percentage points since the start of the World Cup.
Should the match go to a penalty shoot-out, Argentina would have the edge there, with overall chance winning at 11.1 percent compared to just 9.1 percent for Spain.
The Tipico Sports Data Center
The Tipico Sports Data Center continuously analyzes current and historical performance data. This includes tens of thousands of data points on sports competitions, teams, and players. Based on this, Tipico’s data experts calculate, among other things, the probabilities for the most important events in the upcoming matches of a Bundesliga matchday: final scores, number and timing of goals, goal scorers, and much more. Additionally, the Tipico Sports Data Center incorporates fan sentiment. This combination yields unique, data-driven insights into upcoming sporting events.
