- 44 percent of Germans interested in football currently regard Norway as the biggest surprise of the World Cup
- Despite England’s clear advantages, almost one in two people are predicting that Haaland and his team will reach the semi-finals
- 13.2 percent even believe the Scandinavians are capable of winning the World Cup
Norway continues to generate excitement at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Following their 2-1 victory over Brazil in the round of 16, fans now regard the team as the biggest surprise of the tournament. This is shown by a recent representative ONE8Y survey commissioned by the Tipico Sports Data Center.
With 44 percent of the vote, Norway now clearly tops the list when asked which team has been the biggest surprise of the World Cup. Compared with the survey conducted after the round of 32, this represents an increase of 32.4 percentage points.
A tough match against England – fans are sensing another upset
England now await in the quarter-finals, representing the biggest hurdle so far. According to calculations by the Tipico Sports Data Center, the Three Lions go into the match as clear favourites to win, with a 70 percent probability of doing so.
Many fans, however, are not fazed by this. The bettors’ assessment is much more evenly split: 48.4 percent are backing Norway to win, whilst 51.6 percent are backing England. So, despite the clear statistics, almost one in two fans reckons another surprise is on the cards.
From dark horse to title contender?
Norway’s impressive run has now also captured the imagination of many fans. 13.2 percent of those surveyed (up 10.7 percentage points on the last round) now even believe the Scandinavians are capable of winning the title. This means that, in fans’ eyes, Norway is now only behind the top favourites, France and Spain.
The bookmakers, however, are still tempering the euphoria: although Norway’s chances of winning the title have improved from 3.3 percent to 6.7 percent as the tournament has progressed, France remains at the top of the rankings. Kylian Mbappé’s team currently stands at 34.5 percent. Spain and Argentina follow, with 20.8 percent, and England with 16.7 percent.
About the Survey
The survey was conducted on July 7 and 8, 2026, by the sports business and research consultancy ONE8Y on behalf of the Tipico Sports Data Center. The survey included n=1,116 football fans aged 16 to 69, and was representative of the general population according to the census in terms of age, gender, and region. For more information, visit www.one8y-db.com.
The Tipico Sports Data Center
The Tipico Sports Data Center continuously analyzes current and historical performance data. This includes tens of thousands of data points on sports competitions, teams, and players. Based on this, Tipico’s data experts calculate, among other things, the probabilities for the most important events in the upcoming matches of a Bundesliga matchday: final scores, number and timing of goals, goal scorers, and much more. Additionally, the Tipico Sports Data Center incorporates fan sentiment. This combination yields unique, data-driven insights into upcoming sporting events.
