- Portugal is the fans’ favorite – but the data points to Spain
- The German national team has the lowest chance of winning the title since records began
- Fans remain euphoric: The German team enjoys strong support
Portugal is already causing a first surprise even before the start of the 2026 FIFA World Cup: A recent analysis by the Tipico Sports Data Center shows that nearly one in five predictions for the tournament winner is for the Portuguese. This puts the team ahead of Germany (17 percent), France (13 percent), and Spain (12 percent) in the bettors’ predictions.
Is Portugal really that strong? The Tipico Sports Data Center’s analysis shows that while Cristiano Ronaldo’s team is among the top favorites (with a 11.8 percent chance of winning), the teams from Spain (18.2 percent), France (16.7 percent), and England (12.5 percent) still have better odds of lifting the World Cup trophy.
Despite Germany’s Lowest Odds Since Records Began – Fans Remain Optimistic
And Germany? Julian Nagelsmann’s team has just a 6.7 percent chance of winning the title this year. Never before, since the Tipico Sports Data Center began collecting data in 2004, has a German team entered a World Cup final tournament with such slim odds.
Nevertheless: The chances of a successful start to the tournament could hardly be better – and an early exit like last time seems nearly impossible this time around: According to the data, Germany has a 99 percent probability of reaching the next round. The probability of victory against Curacao is also around 95 percent, which corresponds almost exactly to the bettors’ estimates.
Strong Support for the DFB Team
The confidence surrounding the national team is also reflected in the mood in Germany. A representative survey of the population conducted by ONE8Y on behalf of the Tipico Sports Data Center shows that support for the DFB team is high: 73 percent of Germans interested in football identify with the current squad.
This also boosts anticipation for the tournament: Over 80 percent of Germans interested in football are looking forward to the World Cup – partly due to the field of participants. The expansion from 32 to 48 teams is met with general approval by around 60 percent of fans.
About the Survey
The survey was conducted on June 8 and 9, 2026, by the sports business and research consultancy ONE8Y on behalf of the Tipico Sports Data Center. The survey included n=1,022 football fans aged 16 to 69, and was representative of the general population according to the census in terms of age, gender, and region. For more information, visit www.one8y-db.com.
The Tipico Sports Data Center
Das Tipico Sportdatencenter analysiert laufend aktuelle und historische Leistungsdaten. Das umfasst zehntausende Datenpunkte zu Sportwettbewerben, Mannschaften und Spielern. Auf dieser Basis errechnen die Tipico Datenexperten u.a. die Wahrscheinlichkeiten für die wichtigsten Ereignisse der bevorstehenden Partien eines Bundesliga-Spieltages: Endergebnisse, Anzahl und Zeitpunkte der Tore, Torschützen und vieles mehr. Zusätzlich kennt das Tipico Sportdatencenter die Einschätzung der Fans. Aus dieser Kombination entsteht einzigartiges, datengestütztes Wissen über bevorstehende Sportereignisse.
