- 7-1 landslide victory significantly raises German fans’ expectations
- Confidence ahead of Ivory Coast match is high: bettors even more confident of a win than against Curaçao
- Bookmakers remain cautious: actual World Cup title chances increase by only one percentage point
Germany’s resounding 7–1 opening victory over Curaçao has significantly raised expectations among fans: 46.4 percent of football-interested Germans now believe the national team can reach the semi-finals following the goal fest, according to a nationally representative survey conducted by ONE8Y on behalf of the Tipico Sports Data Center. Before the tournament began, the figure stood at just 30.1 percent. Meanwhile, 14.6 percent of respondents now consider a German World Cup triumph possible (+3.8 percentage points).
Virtually all bettors are convinced: Germany will beat Ivory Coast
This wave of optimism also carries over to expectations for Germany’s second group-stage match against Ivory Coast on Saturday evening: 97 percent of all bets placed predict a German victory – a level of confidence that can hardly be surpassed.
However, according to the analysis of the Tipico Sports Data Center, the situation is not quite so clear-cut: bookmakers currently assess Germany’s chances of winning at around 61 percent. Against Curaçao, bettors’ expectations of a German victory (95 percent) still aligned closely with the actual probability of success.
Title chances edge up only slightly
Despite the widespread euphoria, Germany’s title chances have risen only marginally: according to the data analysts, the probability of winning a fifth World Cup title has increased from 6.7 percent to just 7.7 percent. The likelihood of reaching the semi-finals has also risen only slightly, to around 27 percent (+0.5 percentage points).
The reason is that bookmakers still rate several competing nations as significantly stronger than Germany, albeit with some adjustments following the first round of matches: In the race for the World Cup trophy, France has moved to the top of the rankings after its opening victory over Senegal, with a title probability of around 20 percent (+3.3 percentage points). Spain, following a surprising 0–0 draw against Cape Verde, has dropped to second place with 15.4 percent (-2.8 percentage points). They are followed by England with 13.3 percent (+0.8 percentage points), Argentina with 11.8 percent (+1.8 percentage points), and Portugal with 10 percent (-1.8 percentage points) – while Brazil (-2.3 percentage points) sits level with Germany.
About the Survey
The survey was conducted on June 15 and 16, 2026, by the sports business and research consultancy ONE8Y on behalf of the Tipico Sports Data Center. The survey included n=1,004 football fans aged 16 to 69, and was representative of the general population according to the census in terms of age, gender, and region. For more information, visit www.one8y-db.com.
The Tipico Sports Data Center
The Tipico Sports Data Center continuously analyzes current and historical performance data. This includes tens of thousands of data points on sports competitions, teams, and players. Based on this, Tipico’s data experts calculate, among other things, the probabilities for the most important events in the upcoming matches of a Bundesliga matchday: final scores, number and timing of goals, goal scorers, and much more. Additionally, the Tipico Sports Data Center incorporates fan sentiment. This combination yields unique, data-driven insights into upcoming sporting events.
