The transfer window has closed in the top leagues, and the first matches have been played. A representative survey conducted by ONE8Y on behalf of the Tipico Sports Data Center reveals how football fans assess the transfer window and what the first matchdays of the 2. Bundesliga and 3. Liga reveal about the season ahead.
The ball has started rolling in the stadiums of the German leagues and the transfer window is largely closed. This means the clubs’ squads for the current season are virtually set. A representative survey by ONE8Y on behalf of the Tipico Sports Data Center concludes that FC Bayern München made the best signings during the recent transfer window, thereby consolidating its position in the Bundesliga. According to the survey, the record champions are also said to have the best manager in the league: Vincent Kompany was voted the manager who gets the most out of his squad, receiving more than twice as many votes as the runner-up, Niko Kovač. The assessment of the striker situation at FC Bayern is even clearer: more than half of those surveyed believe that Harry Kane will break Robert Lewandowski’s goal-scoring record from the 2020/2021 season and thus score over 41 goals.
Even at the bottom of the Bundesliga table, the pecking order seems clear: Up to 73 per cent of those surveyed tip Paderborn or Elversberg as relegation candidates. Benny Hupfer, data analyst at Tipico’s Sports Data Center, disagrees. Based on his initial impressions, he now considers SVE to be underestimated – particularly as the newly promoted side has a number of very talented players, the analyst notes.
When it comes to a potential Champions League spot, those surveyed rate VfB Stuttgart ahead of Eintracht Frankfurt. More than half of football fans believe the Swabians will be playing in Europe’s premier competition next season. Bookmaker Hupfer also sees VfB ahead of Eintracht, but gives Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen significantly better odds.
Are Hertha and Nuremberg now promotion contenders?
In the second division, the mood in German football is shifting. Whilst a few weeks ago one in three football fans believed Hertha BSC would be relegated, the capital club is now regarded as a promotion contender, alongside 1. FC Nürnberg. Up to 43 per cent of those surveyed currently name Hertha or Nürnberg as the teams set to be promoted. Meanwhile, very few still believe that FC St. Pauli will be promoted again. The data analyst at the Sports Data Center shares this view: he, too, still does not regard St. Pauli as a promotion contender. According to current bookmakers’ predictions, Berlin, Nuremberg and Hannover follow VfL Wolfsburg – whose return to the Bundesliga is all but certain – in the table.
Even before the season began, Hupfer predicted a successful season for these three clubs. The Sports Data Center ranked Hertha sixth, Nuremberg fourth and Hannover second.
Clear roles in the Bundesliga; the 3. Liga is a close contest
Whilst Bayern are expected to be chasing records in the Bundesliga, an exciting season is shaping up in the 3. Liga. Hupfer does not see a clear favourite for promotion here. Fortuna Düsseldorf were initially regarded as the top contenders, but according to the expert, they have put in a disappointing performance so far and risk further reducing their chances of promotion in the coming weeks. Fortuna faces the challenge of a significantly older – and therefore slower – squad, says Hupfer. This has made the team extremely vulnerable to counter-attacks. Is it possible to draw a sporting comparison with 1860 Munich from last season? ‘The comparison is actually very apt!’ concludes the expert. The Lions finished last season in 8th place. He currently regards Hansa Rostock as the strongest team in the league, whilst MSV Duisburg also has a strong chance of promotion.
About the Survey
The survey was carried out on 1 September 2026, shortly after the close of the transfer window, by the sports business and research consultancy ONE8Y on behalf of the Tipico Sports Data Centre. A total of n=1,009 people aged between 16 and 69 were surveyed; the sample was representative of the population according to the census in terms of age, gender and region. This resulted in 351 football enthusiasts.
Find out more at www.one8y-db.com.
The Tipico Sports Data Center
The Tipico Sports Data Center continuously analyzes current and historical performance data. This includes tens of thousands of data points on sports competitions, teams, and players. Based on this, Tipico’s data experts calculate, among other things, the probabilities for the most important events in the upcoming matches of a Bundesliga matchday: final scores, number and timing of goals, goal scorers, and much more. Additionally, the Tipico Sports Data Center incorporates fan sentiment. This combination yields unique, data-driven insights into upcoming sporting events.
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