Not a single ball has been kicked yet, but German football fans have already made up their mind: For some clubs, the role of favorite is greater than ever, while others are facing a nightmare scenario. An exclusive survey commissioned by the Tipico Sports Data Center shows, among other things, how Germany rates Schalke’s chances against Borussia Dortmund, which record FC Bayern München is expected to chase this year, and what Fortuna Düsseldorf is likely to face following relegation to the third division. The Sports Data Center’s analyst assesses the fans’ opinions and firmly rejects one shock prediction.
Many players have found new clubs, and the summer break has come to an end in many places. But even before the start of the season, fans have already reached a consensus: VfL Wolfsburg will return to the Bundesliga. This is the result of a representative survey conducted by ONE8Y on behalf of Tipico’s Sports Data Center. No other club is considered such a clear favorite. 21 percent of respondents named the Lower Saxony club as a promoted team to the Bundesliga, while six teams follow behind with between 10 and 12 percent of the vote each.
Benny Hupfer, data analyst and bookmaker at Tipico’s Sports Data Center, is even more convinced. He considers VfL Wolfsburg to be “the biggest favorite we have ever had in the 2. Bundesliga.” The decisive factors, he says, are the club’s enormous financial advantage over the competition and the existing quality within the squad, which, compared to other recently relegated teams, “sets entirely new standards once again,” according to the Tipico expert. As a result, Wolfsburg’s probability of earning promotion stands at around 70 (!) percent. The Wolves have weakened a direct league rival by signing Fabian Reese and have also brought in several high-profile Bundesliga players. Hannover 96 ranks second in the Sports Data Center’s projected final standings, closely followed by 1. FC Heidenheim.
6th Place or Relegation? Germany and the Bookmaker Disagree on Hertha BSC
No other traditional club sees such a wide gap between fan opinion and the bookmaker’s forecast: 32 percent agree that the statement “Hertha BSC will be relegated to the 3. Liga” is at least “rather likely.” Expert Hupfer strongly disagrees. Despite the departures of several key players such as Fabian Reese, Michaël Cuisance, and Kennet Eichhorn, as well as a disappointing ninth place in the second-half table last season, Hertha BSC is projected to finish sixth in the Sports Data Center’s season forecast. According to Hupfer, there is still a lot of movement to come in the transfer market for Hertha. “The really hot phase is only just beginning,” the expert concludes. Current probability of relegation: just around 5 percent. According to the projection, VfL Osnabrück will finish bottom in 18th place, Eintracht Braunschweig second from bottom, and Energie Cottbus in the relegation playoff spot. Braunschweig has struggled over the past few seasons and narrowly avoided relegation several times. Energie Cottbus, on the other hand, should benefit from promotion momentum, finishing 16th and therefore keeping hope alive of remaining in the 2. Bundesliga.
Fortuna Düsseldorf Promotion Contenders Despite Squad Overhaul
In the 3. Liga, both the Tipico expert’s season forecast and the survey respondents identify relegated sides Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hansa Rostock as the top favorites for promotion. However, Hupfer believes that an immediate return to the second division is nowhere near as certain for Düsseldorf as it is for VfL Wolfsburg. Another major squad overhaul once again brings considerable risks. Last season, a similar rebuilding process turned a potential promotion contender like SSV Ulm into a relegated side.
Many Fans Believe in a Schalke Sensation
Looking ahead to the Bundesliga season opener in a few weeks, the survey also reveals clear trends: Bayern München is the overwhelming favorite with 53 percent and is far ahead of Borussia Dortmund, which received 11 percent of the championship predictions. Football fans even consider a Bayern points record more likely (44 percent) than another club besides the reigning domestic double winner lifting the trophy. Only 32 percent of respondents agree with the latter statement. The Ruhr derby adds even more excitement: Almost one in two believes Schalke will achieve at least one victory over Borussia Dortmund. Around 45 percent of respondents expect Schalke to win the derby.
