Although FC Bayern are currently only second in the table after the first few matchdays, more than half of all German football fans believe that the record champions will break their own Bundesliga points record this season. This is the finding of a representative survey carried out by ONE8Y on behalf of the Tipico Sports Data Center1. At the other end of the table, fans see Union Berlin on a downward spiral. The situation is quite different for their city rivals in the 2. Bundesliga: Hertha BSC have impressed so far, and fans see the ‘Old Lady’ heading for new records – though Benny Hupfer, a data analyst at the Sports Data Center, expects a thrilling battle between the currently dominant Hertha and two other clubs.
The opening matchdays of Germany’s top leagues have been played, and the German footballing world is in agreement: several records in the Bundesliga and 2. Bundesliga are under threat. More than half of football fans believe FC Bayern will set a new points record. In a survey commissioned by the Tipico Sports Data Center before the season began, around 20 percent fewer were convinced that Bayern would set a points record.
Analyst dampens Hertha euphoria
In the 2. Bundesliga, too, one team is on course to break a record: Hertha BSC have won every match of the season so far. Almost one in two people now even believe the club could set a new points record in the 2. Bundesliga, a record Hertha have held since the 2012/2013 season with 76 points. Benny Hupfer, an analyst at Tipico’s Sports Data Center, is equally impressed by the ‘Old Lady’s’ performance so far: “Among the matches played so far, there hasn’t been a single victory that was decided by sheer luck. Everything is simply clicking for Hertha at the moment.” Nevertheless, he predicts an exciting promotion battle in the 2. Bundesliga. Alongside Hertha, Nuremberg and Wolfsburg are also in the mix. According to the expert, Heidenheim will lose further ground. Hannover 96 have been a particular disappointment for him so far, though the data specialist regards Sandro Wagner as the ideal choice for the manager’s role at the Lower Saxony club.
A change of power in the capital?
A majority of those surveyed – 54 percent – are now convinced that Union Berlin will be relegated. Following their 0–7 defeat to Bayern, the team went into the international break second from bottom with just one point, having conceded the most goals in the league. The Sports Data Center has calculated a probability of around 35 percent that Union will be relegated, whilst Hertha have a probability of just under 72 percent of being promoted. Furthermore, based on first impressions of the season, the outlook for Hamburger SV is looking increasingly bleak. 53 percent of football fans now believe that the former Bundesliga stalwart will slip back into the second tier.
Three-quarters of football fans are convinced: Schalke will stay up
FC Schalke, on the other hand, can breathe a sigh of relief: following some convincing performances, the Knappen find themselves in mid-table after the first few matchdays. As many as three in four football fans are convinced that Schalke will avoid relegation. According to Tipico’s Sports Data Center, the probability of them staying up stands at just under 80 percent.
Things are looking good for 1. FC Köln too: 72 percent of football fans believe that Köln will finish the season ahead of Borussia Mönchengladbach, who are currently bottom of the table.
Rot-Weiss Essen is the strongest team in the 3. Liga, according to the analyst
In the 3. Liga, several of Benny Hupfer’s predictions have come true. Although many fans had predicted a successful season for Fortuna Düsseldorf, Hupfer dampened the euphoria early on. “Fortuna have made a few mistakes. It’s understandable that things aren’t going well for them,” says the bookmaker. Following their poor start to the season, he compared Fortuna Düsseldorf to 1860 Munich from the previous season – because a squad that looks impressive on paper is no guarantee of success in the fiercely competitive 3. Liga. The Lions finished their season in 8th place, whilst Düsseldorf are also mid-table. According to the data analyst, Rot-Weiss Essen have the best squad in the league. The team have suffered a run of injuries recently, but are slowly finding their feet this season. Viktoria Köln, however, are a dark horse, according to the analyst. He considered the team from the cathedral city a potential surprise package after just two weeks.
About the Survey
[1] The survey was carried out on 28 and 29 September 2026 by the sports business and research consultancy ONE8Y on behalf of the Tipico Sports Data Center. The survey involved n=1,675 respondents aged between 16 and 69, and was representative of the population according to the census in terms of age, gender and region.
Find out more at www.one8y-db.com.
The Tipico Sports Data Center
The Tipico Sports Data Center continuously analyzes current and historical performance data. This includes tens of thousands of data points on sports competitions, teams, and players. Based on this, Tipico’s data experts calculate, among other things, the probabilities for the most important events in the upcoming matches of a Bundesliga matchday: final scores, number and timing of goals, goal scorers, and much more. Additionally, the Tipico Sports Data Center incorporates fan sentiment. This combination yields unique, data-driven insights into upcoming sporting events.
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