- 19.4 percent of fans name Germany as World Cup champion – marking the first time the national team has topped the poll
- DFB team’s actual probability of winning the title is only 7.7 percent
- France remains the top favorite, ahead of Spain, Argentina, and England
Two match days of the World Cup have been played—and fan enthusiasm has reached new heights thanks to Germany’s two victories: 94 percent of Germans interested in football are actively following the tournament, and more than half (56 percent) are even watching “as many games as possible.” These are the findings of a nationally representative ONE8Y study commissioned by the Tipico Sports Data Center.
Confidence in the German national team is also growing thanks to its performances so far. For the first time since the start of the World Cup, Germany is the most frequently mentioned World Cup winner among fans. 19.4 percent of those surveyed currently expect the DFB team to win its fifth World Cup title. This puts Germany ahead of even France (15.1 percent) and Spain (11.4 percent). By comparison: Before the tournament, the team was still in third place among fans, behind these two nations.
France Remains the Bookmakers’ Favorite – Argentina on the Rise
The Tipico Sports Data Center, on the other hand, has so far remained unimpressed by this development and continues to put Germany’s chances of winning the title at 7.7 percent. France and Spain are considered too strong and pose a threat quite early in the tournament. The French, with a 20 percent chance of winning, remain top contenders for the trophy (+3.3 percentage points since World Cup start). Spain follows with a 15.4 percent probability (-2.8) after its strong 4-0 victory over Saudi Arabia.
The biggest jump in the rankings belongs to Argentina: The team of superstar Lionel Messi – currently the tournament’s top scorer with five goals – has seen its probability of winning the title rise to 14.3 percent, according to data analysis. This represents a total increase of 4.3 percentage points compared to the start of the tournament.
Probability of winning against Ecuador at just 50 percent
Ahead of its final group stage match against Ecuador, Germany has already secured first place in the group. Analysts therefore expect a more evenly matched game: Germany’s chance of winning currently stands at just 50 percent – while Ecuador is still fighting to advance and thus has a 26 percent chance. A look at the betting slips confirms the current euphoria among German fans: 95.5 percent are betting on another victory for the DFB team.
About the Survey
The survey was conducted on June 22 and 23, 2026, by the sports business and research consultancy ONE8Y on behalf of the Tipico Sports Data Center. The survey included n=1,070 football fans aged 16 to 69, and was representative of the general population according to the census in terms of age, gender, and region. For more information, visit www.one8y-db.com.
The Tipico Sports Data Center
Das Tipico Sportdatencenter analysiert laufend aktuelle und historische Leistungsdaten. Das umfasst zehntausende Datenpunkte zu Sportwettbewerben, Mannschaften und Spielern. Auf dieser Basis errechnen die Tipico Datenexperten u.a. die Wahrscheinlichkeiten für die wichtigsten Ereignisse der bevorstehenden Partien eines Bundesliga-Spieltages: Endergebnisse, Anzahl und Zeitpunkte der Tore, Torschützen und vieles mehr. Zusätzlich kennt das Tipico Sportdatencenter die Einschätzung der Fans. Aus dieser Kombination entsteht einzigartiges, datengestütztes Wissen über bevorstehende Sportereignisse.
